This week we take a break from our regular insights about audio for a visit to the other side of our business: Election surveys and analysis. As some readers know, in addition to our leadership in audio research we also provide exit poll and vote count data to the members of the National Election Pool (ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News) as well as many others including Amazon Prime Video, Reuters, and many international broadcasters and newspapers.
Donald Trump has been declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election, marking only the second time in U.S. history a president has been elected to non-consecutive terms. His performance significantly improved over 2020, leading to a successful bid for a second term in office.
There is one group that exhibited a very dramatic change over the last election that accounts for some of the increases Trump achieved – Hispanic/Latino voters in general, and especially Latino men. Latino men represent 6% of the total U.S. voting population.
In 2020, Joe Biden won among Latino men by 23 percentage points: 59%-36%. Our latest estimate for the 2024 vote among Latino men is Trump winning by ten points, 54% to 44%. This change of 33 points on the margin is a rather extraordinary shift in four years’ time. While it will require more research to understand the change fully, it’s worth noting that 40% of Hispanic/Latino voters named the economy as their most important issue from a pick-list of five possibilities, nine points higher than the voting population overall.
Edison Research exit polls are a key way journalists and scholars understand the electorate, and we are proud of our contribution. To learn more about Edison Research’s Election Day coverage, click here.
