Edison Research Exit Poll projects clear victory for opposition parties in Republic of Georgia Parliamentary Elections
By Edison Research
October 26, 2024
An exit poll conducted today by Edison Research for the Georgian Parliamentary Election projects that the ruling Georgian Dream party will fall short of a majority in Parliament. Georgian Dream is projected to receive 41% of the vote, with four opposition parties combining for over 50% of the vote. In total, four opposition parties passed the 5% threshold needed to be eligible for seats in Parliament – UNM, Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia and For Georgia. Edison estimates that Georgian Dream will win 67 seats in the 150 seat Parliament, with the combined opposition parties winning 83 seats.
UNM and a new party that splintered off of UNM, Coalition for Change are projected to win a similar percentage of the votes and 27 seats each. Also projected to win seats are Strong Georgia (16 seats) and For Georgia (13 seats). The opposition parties will need a coalition of at least 75 seats to form a new government.
The following are Edison’s preliminary estimates:
Party
Vote Estimate
Seat Estimate
Georgian Dream
41%
67
UNM
17%
27
Coalition for Change
17%
27
Strong Georgia
10%
16
For Georgia
8%
13
Girchi Iago Khvichia
2%
—
Labor Party
2%
—
Patriotic Alliance
2%
—
Other
1%
—
*Under the 5% threshold to win seats in Parliament
“Our exit poll projects a defeat for the Georgian Dream party. The party’s support fell significantly from their vote in the last Parliamentary election in 2020. Edison projects Georgian Dream’s seat total will fall behind the combined opposition parties” said Edison Executive Vice President Rob Farbman. “Edison We project that the opposition parties will have the seats to create a coalition and form a new government”
The exit poll was conducted nationwide with preliminary data from 14,946 voters interviewed at 115 polling locations. The voting locations in the exit poll are a stratified probability sample of the voting population of Georgia. Within each voting location interviewers approached every nth voter as he or she exited their voting location. The margin of error on these estimates are +/- 2.5%. The response rate was 38%.
About Edison Research
Since 2004, Edison Research has been the sole provider of election data to the National Election Pool, consisting of ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News. For the 2024 U.S. election, Edison will conduct Election Day and early voter exit polls, will collect and tabulate the vote nationwide, and will project winners for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and other races. Edison also conducts exit polls and pre-election poll for elections around the world including Azerbaijan, Iraq, Mexico, the Republic of Georgia Ukraine, and Venezuela. Edison Research’s The Infinite Dial® has been the survey of record for digital audio, social media, podcasting, and other technologies since 1998. In 2014, the company introduced Share of Ear®, a quarterly survey that serves as the only single-source measure of all audio in the U.S., and added the Podcast Consumer Tracker to measure the reach of national podcast producers and related consumer behavior in 2019.
